Will The Invite win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market resolves based on the official Academy Award for Best Picture at the 99th Oscars ceremony, primarily verified through the official Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences website or ceremony broadcast.
Read the full assessment
The market resolves based on the official Academy Award for Best Picture at the 99th Oscars ceremony, primarily verified through the official Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences website or ceremony broadcast. Positions resolve early to No if the film fails to receive an official nomination when nominations are announced. In the rare event of a tie, resolution favors the nominee appearing first alphabetically, and if no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, the market resolves to Other.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Last captured price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Picture. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether the film The Invite will win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards in 2027. Unusual provisions include immediate resolution to No if the film is not nominated, and an alphabetical tiebreaker if multiple films tie for the win.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if The Invite wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Picture. In the event of a tie for the winner, the market resolves in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The market resolves to No if The Invite is not officially nominated for Best Picture when the 2027 nominees are announced, or if another eligible film wins. The market resolves to Other if no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source is official information from AMPAS and the Academy Awards, including their website and the live ceremony broadcast, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including their website and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·