Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution requires verifying both that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island and that another entity has established control.
Read the full assessment
Resolution requires verifying both that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island and that another entity has established control. While the rules detail specific exclusions—such as temporary raids, naval blockades, or unverified claims—evaluating whether control has been fully established rather than merely contested involves subjective interpretation. The rules explicitly resolve to No if control remains contested or unclear at the deadline. Additionally, resolution depends on official government statements and a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single definitive authority.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
3%
chance▲ +0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Iran ceases to exercise primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island by December 31, 2026. Resolution requires another entity to have established actual control, meaning disputed status or temporary military actions do not count.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Changes under settlements, ceasefires, surrenders, or transfers qualify only once actual control is established. The market resolves to No if Iran maintains control, or if control is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the deadline. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, offshore naval presence, temporary disruptions, or unverified claims and threats do not qualify for Yes. Official statements from relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting, will decide the resolution.
Resolution source
Official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·