Will Gold (GC) dip to (LOW) $2,500 by end of December?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market relies on a single, well-defined official source: CME Group's daily official settlement price for the front-month Gold futures contract.
Read the full assessment
The market relies on a single, well-defined official source: CME Group's daily official settlement price for the front-month Gold futures contract. The rules clearly define how the active contract month is selected and exclude intraday highs, lows, or trades. The primary detail to be aware of is that resolution depends strictly on official daily settlement figures, meaning an intraday price drop to or below $2,500 that does not result in a qualifying settlement price at or below that threshold will not trigger a positive resolution. Additionally, initial published settlement prices are used without regard to subsequent adjustments.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or below the listed price between market creation and the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market’s creation will not be considered. For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures. If the official settlement price for any relevant trading day has not been published on the CME Group website within 72 hours of the final trading day (ET) of the specified period, the market will resolve based on the settlement prices published through all CME channels up to that point.
Rules history
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or below the listed price between market creation and the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market’s creation will not be considered. For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Market explained
This market measures whether the official CME daily settlement price for front-month Gold (GC) futures falls to or below $2,500 by the end of December 2026. Unusually, intraday price lows do not count; resolution depends strictly on official daily settlement prices.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or below $2,500 on any trading day between market creation and the final trading day of December 2026. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, indicative prices, and price action before market creation do not count. The market resolves to No if the official settlement price does not reach or fall below $2,500 by the final trading day of December 2026. Resolution is determined by CME Group's first published daily settlement price, regardless of later updates. If the settlement price is not published within 72 hours of the final trading day (ET), resolution uses prices published across all CME channels up to that point.
Resolution source
CME Group website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·