Will Esthela Damián Peralta win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves clearly based on the official winner of the June 2027 Guerrero gubernatorial election.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves clearly based on the official winner of the June 2027 Guerrero gubernatorial election. Interim or caretaker governors are explicitly excluded from qualifying. While initial resolution relies on a consensus of credible media reporting, the rules provide a direct fallback to official government and electoral authorities, specifically the Electoral Institute of Guerrero and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico, if reporting is unclear. A generous timeout date of December 31, 2027 provides sufficient time for official certification or legal challenges.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
4%
chance▼ −0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Guerrero on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Guerrero gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Guerrero and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Guerrero and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Market explained
This market measures whether Esthela Damián Peralta will win the 2027 Guerrero gubernatorial election scheduled for June 6, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Esthela Damián Peralta wins the 2027 Guerrero gubernatorial election. Interim or caretaker governors do not qualify. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if the results are not definitively known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, official results reported by government sources of Guerrero and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Guerrero and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico, will decide the outcome.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or official results from government sources of Guerrero and Mexico (including the Electoral Institute of Guerrero and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico).
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·