Will Pablo Amílcar Sandoval Ballesteros win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify that the market resolves based on the official winner of the June 6, 2027 Guerrero gubernatorial election, explicitly excluding interim or caretaker appointments.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify that the market resolves based on the official winner of the June 6, 2027 Guerrero gubernatorial election, explicitly excluding interim or caretaker appointments. Resolution relies initially on a consensus of credible reporting, with a clear fallback to official government and electoral authorities (the Electoral Institute of Guerrero and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico) if any ambiguity arises. There is a broad cutoff date of December 31, 2027, resolving to Other if definitive results are unavailable by then, which leaves ample time for official certification while preventing the market from hanging indefinitely.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Guerrero on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Guerrero gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Guerrero and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Guerrero and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Market explained
This market measures whether Pablo Amílcar Sandoval Ballesteros will win the 2027 Guerrero gubernatorial election. An interim or caretaker Governor does not qualify.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Pablo Amílcar Sandoval Ballesteros wins the 2027 Guerrero gubernatorial election. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. The market resolves to "Other" if the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity exists, it resolves solely based on official government results from Guerrero and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Guerrero and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or official results from government sources of Guerrero and Mexico (including the Electoral Institute of Guerrero and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico).
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·