Iran leadership change by November 30?
Gotcha risk
High3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market title broadly asks about an Iranian leadership change, but the rules narrowly define resolution around whether Mojtaba Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader or is prevented from acting in that role.
Read the full assessment
The market title broadly asks about an Iranian leadership change, but the rules narrowly define resolution around whether Mojtaba Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader or is prevented from acting in that role. Resolution relies on a decider interpreting a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official registry or specific government authority to determine when de facto power has been lost. Additionally, an official announcement of a future resignation or removal qualifies for resolution immediately, even if the actual departure is scheduled to take place after the deadline.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance▲ +0.15 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Mojtaba Khamenei ceases to be the de facto Supreme Leader of Iran by November 30, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Mojtaba Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and November 30 (ET). This includes being removed from power, detained, losing his position, being prevented from acting as de facto leader, or if an official announcement of his resignation or removal is made, regardless of when the departure takes effect. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·