Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?
Gotcha risk
High3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market title broadly asks about an Iranian leadership change, but the specific rules hinge entirely on whether Mojtaba Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader or is prevented from acting in that role.
Read the full assessment
The market title broadly asks about an Iranian leadership change, but the specific rules hinge entirely on whether Mojtaba Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader or is prevented from acting in that role. If a participant assumes this market tracks the official Supreme Leader generally or current head of state, they may be caught off guard by the explicit focus on Mojtaba Khamenei. Furthermore, assessing whether an individual is de facto in power or prevented from acting is inherently subjective and relies entirely on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official institutional source, giving the resolver substantial discretion. The rules also specify that an official announcement of departure triggers immediate resolution even if the actual exit is scheduled for a future date.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- High
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
20%
chance▲ +2 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Mojtaba Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran by June 30, 2027. Notably, it assumes Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader and resolves to Yes upon an official announcement of departure regardless of effective date.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Mojtaba Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2027 (ET). This includes being removed from power, detained, losing his position, being prevented from acting as de facto leader, or having an official announcement of his resignation or removal made, regardless of when the departure takes effect. The market resolves to No otherwise. The deciding source is a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·