Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide substantial detail on what constitutes a qualifying diplomatic meeting, but participants should note several specific conditions that alter straightforward interpretations.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide substantial detail on what constitutes a qualifying diplomatic meeting, but participants should note several specific conditions that alter straightforward interpretations. Notably, indirect in-person diplomacy conducted through mediators qualifies even if the representatives are never in the same room, yet the individual must still be physically present and actively participating. Additionally, the rules exclude technical talks, working groups, and follow-ons from a specific prior round unless convened as a new formal senior-level round. Resolution relies on official government statements or a consensus of credible media reporting to judge whether nuanced criteria like active participation and official authorization are met.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Donald Trump physically attends and actively participates in a formal senior-level round of US-Iran peace talks or diplomatic negotiations by December 31, 2026. Notably, indirect in-person diplomacy through mediators qualifies even if US and Iranian representatives are not in the same room.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump physically attends and actively participates in any formal senior-level round of peace talks or deliberate diplomatic negotiations concerning US-Iran relations by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Participating in multi-day rounds or indirect in-person diplomacy through authorized mediators qualifies. Technical, staff-level, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings do not qualify on their own, nor do brief greetings, photo ops, ceremonial appearances, remote meetings, or follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met by the deadline. Resolution is determined using official information from Donald Trump and the governments of the United States and Iran, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from Donald Trump, the US government, the Iranian government, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·