Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
4 live outcomes · highest priced: Abbas Araghchi at 31% (−7 pts in 24h) · first close Dec 31, 2026 · $1.7M total volume
About this event
This event tracks whether specific officials or public figures will physically attend a formal senior-level round of peace talks or diplomatic meetings between representatives of the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026.
How the outcomes relate
The event comprises individual markets for different individuals. Because multiple individuals can participate in qualifying diplomatic rounds, more than one market can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
Each market resolves to Yes if the listed individual is physically present and actively participating in any formal senior-level round of peace talks between US and Iranian representatives between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying events must be deliberate in-person diplomatic meetings concerning US-Iran relations involving authorized senior representatives; indirect in-person diplomacy through mediators qualifies. Technical, staff-level, working-group, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings do not qualify on their own, nor do remote calls, ceremonial appearances, or chance encounters. If the condition is not met by the deadline, the market resolves to No.
Key dates
- End date: — Deadline for attendance at 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran, or a consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbas Araghchi | 31% | ▼ 7 | Med | Med | |
| Jared Kushner | 30% | ▼ 7 | Med | Med | |
| Steve Witkoff | 28% | ▼ 10 | Med | Low | |
| J.D. Vance | 19% | ▼ 13 | Med | Low | |
| Donald Trump | — | — | Med | Med | |
| Marco Rubio | — | — | Med | Med | |
| Pete Hegseth | — | — | Med | Med | |
| Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf | — | — | Med | Med | |
| Mojtaba Khamenei | — | — | Med | Med | |
| Masoud Pezeshkian | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Majid Takht-Ravanchi | — | — | Med | Med | |
| Kazem Gharibabadi | — | — | Med | Low | |
| Ahmad Vahidi | — | — | Med | High | |
| Esmail Qaani | — | — | Med | High | |
| Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Ishaq Dar | — | — | Med | Low | |
| Rafael Grossi | — | — | Med | Med | |
| Nick Stewart | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Mohammed bin Salman | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Palmer Luckey | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Newt Gingrich | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Elon Musk | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani | — | — | Med | Low | |
| Melania Trump | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Mohsen Rezaei | — | — | Not rated | — |