Will Mojtaba Khamenei attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on whether an encounter meets specific diplomatic thresholds, requiring official government acknowledgement or a consensus of credible reporting.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on whether an encounter meets specific diplomatic thresholds, requiring official government acknowledgement or a consensus of credible reporting. The rules allow indirect diplomacy via mediators where representatives are not in the same room, but require the named individual to be physically present and actively participating. Furthermore, multiple meeting formats are explicitly excluded, such as working-group discussions, brief greetings, ceremonial appearances, and follow-on technical talks stemming from a prior June 22 Switzerland round unless part of a new formally convened senior-level peace round. Deciding whether an event meets the definition of senior-level peace talks versus excluded technical or preparatory discussions involves subjective evaluation across media and government reports.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Mojtaba Khamenei physically attends and actively participates in a formal senior-level in-person diplomatic meeting between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Mojtaba Khamenei is physically present and actively participates in any part of a deliberate in-person formal senior-level round of peace talks concerning US-Iran relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying talks include authorized indirect in-person diplomacy via mediators and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, remote meetings, and standalone technical or staff-level talks do not qualify. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met. Resolution is determined by official information from the individual and the governments of the US and Iran, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from Mojtaba Khamenei, the US government, and the Iranian government, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·