Will Rafael Grossi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Because the subject is the head of the IAEA, market participants must distinguish between standard technical nuclear monitoring talks—which are explicitly excluded unless part of a broader formal senior-level round—and qualifying high-level diplomatic peace talks.
Read the full assessment
Because the subject is the head of the IAEA, market participants must distinguish between standard technical nuclear monitoring talks—which are explicitly excluded unless part of a broader formal senior-level round—and qualifying high-level diplomatic peace talks. The rules allow indirect diplomacy where parties are not in the same room, but require active participation and senior-level authorization. Resolution relies either on official government statements or on deciders evaluating a consensus of credible media reporting to determine if the meeting's character meets the formal peace-talk threshold rather than an excluded working-group or technical discussion.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
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Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Rafael Grossi will physically attend and actively participate in a formal senior-level round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31, 2026. Resolution requires an in-person, publicly acknowledged or credibly reported diplomatic meeting, which can include indirect diplomacy through mediators.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Rafael Grossi is physically present and actively participating in any part of a formal senior-level round of peace talks between authorized representatives of the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying talks must be deliberate in-person meetings concerning US-Iran relations, including indirect in-person diplomacy where senior representatives participate in the same process through intermediaries without needing to be in the same room. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round, standalone technical or staff-level meetings, remote sessions, brief greetings, or ceremonial appearances do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no such qualifying attendance occurs by the deadline. Resolution is determined by official information from Rafael Grossi, the US government, and the Iranian government, or by a consensus of credible media reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from Rafael Grossi and the governments of the United States and Iran, or a consensus of credible media reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·