Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $3T?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify how market capitalization is defined and measured based on the official closing share price on Anthropic's first day of trading.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify how market capitalization is defined and measured based on the official closing share price on Anthropic's first day of trading. The resolution source is the primary exchange's official listing page, with clear fallback mechanics for abbreviated trading sessions or delayed closings. A precise expiration deadline of December 31, 2027, resolves the market to No if no IPO occurs, leaving minimal room for subjective interpretation or timing conflicts.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Anthropic's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange's official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market explained
This market measures whether Anthropic's market capitalization exceeds $3 trillion at the close of its first public trading day following an IPO.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Anthropic's official closing market capitalization on its first trading day exceeds $3 trillion. Market cap is calculated as total outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price. The market resolves to No if the closing market cap is at or below $3 trillion, or if no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. If trading is interrupted on the first day, the official closing price of the shortened session is used, or the next trading day with a published closing price if none is published. Resolution is decided using the primary exchange's official listing page, or another reliable source if unavailable.
Resolution source
Primary exchange's official listing page, or another reliable source if unavailable
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·