Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution rules clearly specify a single, objective resolution source and precise URL filters to determine the leading model.
Read the full assessment
The resolution rules clearly specify a single, objective resolution source and precise URL filters to determine the leading model. A fixed timestamp of November 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET is provided for the leaderboard check. Specific exclusions are clearly stated, such as excluding models tagged with 'AutoEval'. Additionally, detailed tie-breaking mechanics are outlined step-by-step, including raw unrounded scores and alphabetical sorting as a final resort, alongside a fallback procedure if the leaderboard site is temporarily or permanently offline.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market explained
This market measures whether SpaceXAI owns the top-ranked AI model on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at the end of November 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if SpaceXAI owns the model occupying first place on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard on November 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. The market resolves to No if another company owns the top-ranked model. Models marked 'AutoEval' are excluded regardless of rank or score. Rankings are determined by leaderboard rank with style control off and filtered for Models, tie-broken by granular unrounded Arena score, and finally by alphabetical order of company name. The market resolves to Other if the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable. Resolution is decided using the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard. If unavailable at check time, the market remains open until the first check after it comes back online.
Resolution source
arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·