Will Tencent have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide precise and objective resolution mechanics.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide precise and objective resolution mechanics. The outcome is determined by checking a specific URL on arena.ai at a fixed timestamp (November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET) under explicit filter configurations (style control off, filtered for models, excluding AutoEval). Explicit tie-breaking rules are defined step-by-step down to alphabetical ordering, leaving almost no room for decider discretion. The only minor contingency to watch for is the possibility of the website being temporarily or permanently offline, which triggers extended market timing or a fallback resolution to Other.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market explained
This market measures whether a model owned by Tencent holds first place on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at the check time on November 30, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Tencent owns the top-ranked model on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at the specified check time. Models marked "AutoEval" are excluded. Rank ties are broken first by Arena score (including unrounded granular values), and finally by alphabetical order of company names. The market resolves No if another company's model occupies first place. The market resolves to Other if the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable. The market resolves based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard filtered for Models with style control off (Adjustments: None). If the source is offline at the scheduled time, the market stays open until it comes back online and resolves on the first check.
Resolution source
arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·