Will StepFun have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution criteria are clearly specified, citing an exact URL, specific view settings (Adjustments: None, filtered for Models), and a precise check time on November 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Read the full assessment
The resolution criteria are clearly specified, citing an exact URL, specific view settings (Adjustments: None, filtered for Models), and a precise check time on November 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. The rules exclude models marked AutoEval, detail explicit tie-breaking steps down to unrounded Arena scores and alphabetical order of company names, and provide clear fallback procedures if the site is temporarily or permanently offline.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market explained
This market measures whether StepFun owns the top-ranked AI model on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at the end of November 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if StepFun occupies first place on the leaderboard based on ranking criteria at the check time. It resolves to No if another company holds the top spot. It resolves to Other if the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable. The market resolves based on the company owning the highest-ranked model on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard with style control off and filtered for Models, disregarding any models marked AutoEval. Ties are broken first by unrounded Arena score, then by alphabetical order of company names. The leaderboard check is evaluated by the resolution source.
Resolution source
arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·