Watch for: Resolution relies directly on public official statements from named United States authorities, including the President, Department of Defense, Department of State, or CENTCOM.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies directly on public official statements from named United States authorities, including the President, Department of Defense, Department of State, or CENTCOM. The criteria explicitly distinguish between a general termination or suspension of the blockade and partial or conditional exemptions, such as single-vessel waivers. Additionally, the market resolves positively upon an official announcement even if the policy is later reversed or not fully implemented in practice.
Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
8%
chance
▼ −2 pts · 24h
Yes8¢
No93¢
November 30 · Yes · 1MO 25.0 H 34.5 L 7.5 C 7.5−17.5 (−70.0%)
The market fell from 27% to 16% as 2 related outcomes repriced alongside it, with odds shifting toward alternative dates including November 15 and December 31.
Largest hourly change: 20:00 UTC, 61% of the net 24-hour change.
Closes 21 days after the move hour.
2 related outcomes moved in the same window, 0 in the same direction. Largest: December 31 (up), November 15 (up).
News check pending.
A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.
AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 20:05 UTC
Earlier
▲ +10 pts · 9 Nov 2026, 15:10 UTCThe market rose from 14% to 25%, moving alongside 3 related outcomes for alternative timeline dates that also repriced upward.News check pending.AI-generated · 9 Nov 2026, 15:20 UTC
Resolution rules
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United States government officially announces the termination or suspension of its naval blockade on Iranian ships by November 30, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the US government or an authorized representative officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the naval blockade on Iranian ships and customer vessels before November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying statements must clearly declare a present, prior, or definitive decision to cease blocking traffic generally, even if later reversed or if some restrictions remain. It resolves to No if no such official announcement occurs by the deadline. Partial exemptions, leaks, unauthorized remarks, informal comments, and conditional statements do not qualify. Resolution is determined by official communications from the US government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, or CENTCOM.
Resolution source
United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or authorized official representatives