US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

This event tracks whether the United States government officially announces the end, lifting, or suspension of its naval blockade targeting Iranian ships and customers by various specified deadline dates.

How the outcomes relate

The event consists of multiple date-based milestone markets. Because each market asks if a qualifying announcement occurs by a specific date, earlier qualifying announcements will cause multiple subsequent deadline markets to resolve Yes.

How it resolves

A market resolves to Yes if the US government or an authorized representative publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the naval blockade on Iranian ships and customers before 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. The announcement must communicate a general cessation of vessel blocking and represent a present, decided position rather than a conditional or prospective one. If no such announcement occurs by the deadline, the market resolves to No. Once a qualifying announcement is made, it resolves to Yes even if later reversed.

Key dates

• Reinstatement announcement: Jul 13, 2026 — Trump announced the reinstatement of the naval blockade of Iran.
• October deadline: Oct 31, 2026 — Deadline for the October 31, 2026 market at 11:59 PM ET.
• December deadline: Dec 31, 2026 — Deadline for the December 31, 2026 market at 11:59 PM ET.

Resolution source

Official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or official representatives.

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 17 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC