Watch for: Resolution relies directly on official statements from the United States government or authorized bodies such as the Department of Defense, Department of State, or CENTCOM.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies directly on official statements from the United States government or authorized bodies such as the Department of Defense, Department of State, or CENTCOM. While the sources and deadline are well-defined, holders must evaluate whether ambiguous policy statements meet the threshold of an official, declarative end or suspension rather than a partial exemption or contingent plan. The rules specify that precise phrasing is not required as long as the substantive policy change is clearly communicated, meaning the market decider must interpret the scope of official diplomatic or military statements. Additionally, the market resolves immediately upon a qualifying announcement even if the blockade is never lifted in practice or the policy is later reversed.
Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Medium
Exceptions
Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
27%
chance
▼ −6.6 pts · 24h
Yes27¢
No73¢
December 31 · Yes · 1MO 40.6 H 47.0 L 26.8 C 26.8−13.9 (−34.1%)
The market price rose from 36% to 47%, moving in tandem with a related outcome for November 15 which also moved up as part of a joint repricing across related markets.
Largest hourly change: 19:00 UTC, 56% of the net 24-hour change.
Closes 52 days after the move hour.
1 related outcome moved in the same window, 1 in the same direction. Largest: November 15 (up).
News check pending.
A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.
AI-generated · 9 Nov 2026, 20:05 UTC
Resolution rules
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United States officially announces the end, suspension, or non-implementation of its naval blockade on Iranian ships and customers by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the US government or an authorized representative publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the naval blockade on Iranian ships and customers by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying announcements must be official declarative statements of a present or definitive decision to generally cease blocking traffic (or that the blockade will not take effect), even if fees remain or the decision is later reversed. Partial changes, conditional statements, leaks, unauthorized remarks, or exemptions for specific vessels do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no such qualifying announcement is made by the deadline. Resolution is determined by official information from the US government, including the President, DoD, State Department, or CENTCOM.
Resolution source
Official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or official representatives of the United States government.