Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Turkey?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official registry or formal transcript, leaving discretion in judging what counts as a qualifying encounter.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official registry or formal transcript, leaving discretion in judging what counts as a qualifying encounter. The rules define a meeting as direct personal interaction such as a handshake, direct conversation, or verbal exchange, while specifically excluding mere co-presence or eye contact; verifying these fine physical interactions at a crowded multilateral summit could prove subjective. Territorial and regional edge cases are explicitly defined, including the rule that territory under de facto Russian control counts as Russia rather than Ukraine, and regional groupings follow the U.S. State Department classifications. A long timeline extending to December 31, 2027, is provided with a dedicated resolution pathway if no meeting takes place.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
3%
chance▲ +0.2 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to "No meeting by December 31, 2027" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe. A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Zelenskyy are all present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. For the purpose of this market, a meeting held on Ukrainian territory under the de facto control of Russia (e.g., Crimea) will be considered part of Russia. A meeting held in Vatican City will resolve to "Vatican City," not "Italy." If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to "Other - Europe." If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to "Other - Middle East/North Africa." If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any unlisted country that is not classified in either specified region, this market will resolve to "Other." For purposes of this market, countries' regions will be determined based on the U.S. State Department's regional classifications in the "Countries and Areas List" (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of "Europe and Eurasia" will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of "Near East (Middle East and North Africa)" will be considered to be in the Middle East/North Africa. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether the next in-person meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy takes place in Turkey before the end of 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Turkey (or Yes for this specific option) if the next in-person encounter between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy occurs in Turkey. A meeting requires direct interaction, such as an exchange of words, a handshake, or direct conversation; mere proximity, eye contact, or sharing a room without direct interaction does not qualify. The market resolves to another specific location, an "Other" regional category, or "Other" if the next meeting occurs elsewhere. It resolves to "No meeting by December 31, 2027" if no qualifying meeting happens before the deadline. The primary resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·