Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Russia?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official registry or formal diplomatic statement, giving the decider latitude to determine whether an interaction qualifies.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official registry or formal diplomatic statement, giving the decider latitude to determine whether an interaction qualifies. The definition of a meeting requires direct in-person interaction, such as a handshake or exchanged words, explicitly excluding mere presence in the same room, which could lead to dispute over brief or ambiguous encounters at international summits. Notably, the rules include a specific geographic exception deeming Ukrainian territory under de facto Russian control as part of Russia for resolution purposes, which could surprise participants expecting internationally recognized borders. Regional classifications follow the US State Department directory, and if no meeting occurs by the end of 2027, the market resolves to a designated negative outcome.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Last captured price
3%
chance▼ −0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to "No meeting by December 31, 2027" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe. A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Zelenskyy are all present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. For the purpose of this market, a meeting held on Ukrainian territory under the de facto control of Russia (e.g., Crimea) will be considered part of Russia. A meeting held in Vatican City will resolve to "Vatican City," not "Italy." If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to "Other - Europe." If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to "Other - Middle East/North Africa." If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any unlisted country that is not classified in either specified region, this market will resolve to "Other." For purposes of this market, countries' regions will be determined based on the U.S. State Department's regional classifications in the "Countries and Areas List" (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of "Europe and Eurasia" will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of "Near East (Middle East and North Africa)" will be considered to be in the Middle East/North Africa. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether the next in-person meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy takes place in Russia. A notable condition is that Ukrainian territory under de facto Russian control, such as Crimea, counts as Russia.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Russia (or Yes) if the next in-person meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy occurs in Russia before the deadline. Ukrainian territory under de facto Russian control, including Crimea, is considered part of Russia. A qualifying meeting requires a direct personal interaction, such as a handshake, exchange of words, or direct conversation; merely sharing a room without direct interaction does not qualify. The market resolves to other specific location options, region categories, or 'Other' if the meeting happens elsewhere. The market resolves to 'No meeting by December 31, 2027' if no qualifying meeting occurs by the deadline. The resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·