Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Ukraine?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single designated authority, requiring subjective judgement to confirm whether a qualifying interaction occurred.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single designated authority, requiring subjective judgement to confirm whether a qualifying interaction occurred. Key edge cases exist around geography: any meeting held in internationally recognized Ukrainian territory that is under de facto Russian control is explicitly counted as taking place in Russia rather than Ukraine. Additionally, the rules set a strict threshold for what constitutes a meeting, explicitly requiring direct interaction like a conversation or handshake rather than merely sharing a room, which could leave room for debate if an encounter is brief or disputed.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Last captured price
1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to "No meeting by December 31, 2027" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe. A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Zelenskyy are all present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. For the purpose of this market, a meeting held on Ukrainian territory under the de facto control of Russia (e.g., Crimea) will be considered part of Russia. A meeting held in Vatican City will resolve to "Vatican City," not "Italy." If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to "Other - Europe." If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to "Other - Middle East/North Africa." If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any unlisted country that is not classified in either specified region, this market will resolve to "Other." For purposes of this market, countries' regions will be determined based on the U.S. State Department's regional classifications in the "Countries and Areas List" (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of "Europe and Eurasia" will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of "Near East (Middle East and North Africa)" will be considered to be in the Middle East/North Africa. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether the next in-person meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy takes place in Ukraine by December 31, 2027. Notably, meetings in Ukrainian territory under de facto Russian control (such as Crimea) count as taking place in Russia rather than Ukraine.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy next meet in person within Ukraine before December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying meeting requires direct interaction such as a conversation, handshake, or exchange of words, while mere proximity or shared attendance does not count. Territory under de facto Russian control counts as Russia, not Ukraine. The market resolves to No if their next meeting occurs in a different location or if no meeting occurs by the deadline. A consensus of credible reporting decides the outcome.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·