Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Azerbaijan?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify what constitutes a qualifying in-person encounter, explicitly requiring direct interaction like a handshake or conversation rather than mere co-presence.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify what constitutes a qualifying in-person encounter, explicitly requiring direct interaction like a handshake or conversation rather than mere co-presence. Clear fallback standards are provided for regional geography and contested territories, using the U.S. State Department classifications. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single official registry, which requires some decider discretion to confirm whether an interaction actually occurred.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Last captured price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to "No meeting by December 31, 2027" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe. A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Zelenskyy are all present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. For the purpose of this market, a meeting held on Ukrainian territory under the de facto control of Russia (e.g., Crimea) will be considered part of Russia. A meeting held in Vatican City will resolve to "Vatican City," not "Italy." If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to "Other - Europe." If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to "Other - Middle East/North Africa." If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any unlisted country that is not classified in either specified region, this market will resolve to "Other." For purposes of this market, countries' regions will be determined based on the U.S. State Department's regional classifications in the "Countries and Areas List" (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of "Europe and Eurasia" will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of "Near East (Middle East and North Africa)" will be considered to be in the Middle East/North Africa. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether the next in-person meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy occurs in Azerbaijan before the end of 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy's next in-person encounter with direct personal interaction (such as an exchange of words, a handshake, or direct conversation) takes place in Azerbaijan before December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if their next qualifying meeting occurs in a different country or region, or if no qualifying meeting happens by the deadline. Merely being in the same room, making eye contact, or standing in proximity without direct interaction does not qualify. Resolution will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·