Will the Fed Pause-Pause-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify the exact three FOMC meetings to be evaluated and provide objective definitions for what constitutes a pause, cut, or hike based on the upper bound of the target federal funds rate.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify the exact three FOMC meetings to be evaluated and provide objective definitions for what constitutes a pause, cut, or hike based on the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. Resolution is determined directly by official statements published by the Federal Reserve, leaving virtually no decider discretion. The only notable exception is that emergency or unscheduled rate changes outside regular FOMC meetings are explicitly excluded, which is clearly stated.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chance▲ +0.65 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 27 to 28; December 8 to 9; and January 26 to 27. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Open Market Committee will pause its target interest rate across three consecutive scheduled meetings: October, December, and January.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the FOMC leaves the upper bound of the target federal funds rate unchanged at all three scheduled meetings (October 27-28, December 8-9, and January 26-27). It resolves to Other if the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, with any rate cut specifically encompassed by Other. Emergency rate changes occurring outside regularly scheduled meetings are not considered. Resolution is decided using the FOMC statements released after its meetings.
Resolution source
FOMC statements after its meetings
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·