Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market relies on official Federal Reserve FOMC statements to track changes in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate across three specific scheduled meetings.
Read the full assessment
The market relies on official Federal Reserve FOMC statements to track changes in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate across three specific scheduled meetings. However, the title asks if the Fed will 'decide differently' while the rules reference outcomes matching 'any listed' options and specify that any rate cut or unlisted combination resolves to 'Other'. Because the full set of named market outcomes is not spelled out directly in the text, participants must ensure whether binary or categorical options are being traded. Additionally, emergency unscheduled rate actions are strictly excluded from consideration.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▼ −0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 27 to 28; December 8 to 9; and January 26 to 27. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Market explained
This market measures the Federal Reserve's target interest rate decisions across three specific FOMC meetings (October, December, and January).
How it resolves
The market resolves based on the sequence of interest rate decisions made at the October, December, and January FOMC meetings, defined by changes to the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. A rate hike occurs if the upper bound increases, a pause occurs if it remains equal, and a cut occurs if it decreases. The market resolves to Other if the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, and any combination containing a rate cut will resolve to Other. Emergency rate changes occurring outside regularly scheduled meetings are excluded and not considered. The resolution is determined by the FOMC statements published following the meetings.
Resolution source
FOMC statements and the official website of the Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·