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GeopoliticsCloses · in 47 days$111.1K volumePart of: Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? →

Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

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Gotcha risk

Medium

3 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: This market depends on qualitative determinations of what constitutes a 'formal senior-level round of peace talks' versus excluded technical or staff-level discussions.

Read the full assessment

This market depends on qualitative determinations of what constitutes a 'formal senior-level round of peace talks' versus excluded technical or staff-level discussions. The rules allow indirect diplomacy where parties are not in the same room, but require the subject to be 'actively participating' and authorized, which leaves room for interpretation regarding an individual who may or may not hold an official government title. Verification relies on either official statements from the governments involved or a consensus of credible media reporting, which introduces decider discretion if reporting is conflicting or partial.

Resolver
Medium
Timing
Low
Wording
Medium
Exceptions
Medium

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

30%

chance

▼ −7.5 pts · 24h

Yes30¢
No71¢
Jared Kushner · Yes · 1MO 36.0 H 48.5 L 24.0 C 29.5−6.5 (−18.1%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▼ −10 pts24h · detected 12 Nov 2026, 19:55 UTC

The price fell from 40% to 30% alongside simultaneous declines in 3 related market outcomes, including J.D. Vance, Steve Witkoff, and Abbas Araghchi, pointing to a broader repricing across the event's outcomes as the likely driver.

  • Largest hourly change: 17:00 UTC, 55% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 48 days after the move hour.
  • 3 related outcomes moved in the same window, 3 in the same direction. Largest: J.D. Vance (down), Steve Witkoff (down), Abbas Araghchi (down).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 12 Nov 2026, 20:05 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Market explained

This market measures whether Jared Kushner will physically attend a formal, senior-level US-Iran diplomatic or peace-talk meeting by December 31, 2026.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if Jared Kushner is physically present and actively participating in any formal senior-level round of peace talks between authorized senior representatives of the US and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying meetings must be deliberate, in-person (including authorized indirect diplomacy through mediators where parties need not share a room), and publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Attendance at any part of a multi-day round qualifies. The market resolves to No if he does not attend such a meeting by the deadline. Brief greetings, chance encounters, ceremonial appearances, remote calls, technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round by themselves, and standalone staff-level or working-group meetings do not qualify. Resolution is decided using official information from Jared Kushner and the governments of the US and Iran, or a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution source

Official information from Jared Kushner and the governments of the United States and Iran, or a consensus of credible reporting

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·