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PoliticsCloses · in 2 days$71.3K volumePart of: Ljubljana Mayoral Election Winner →

Will Luka Mesec win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election?

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Gotcha risk

Low

1 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: This market resolves based on the official outcome of the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election, including potential runoff dates.

Read the full assessment

This market resolves based on the official outcome of the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election, including potential runoff dates. Resolution primarily relies on credible reporting consensus, but provides a concrete fallback to the official results certified by the Municipal Election Commission and published by the State Election Commission. It clearly excludes interim or placeholder mayors and sets a clear longstop date of May 31, 2027, resolving to Other if the election outcome remains unknown.

Resolver
Medium
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

29%

chance

▼ −6 pts · 24h

Yes29¢
No71¢
Luka Mesec · Yes · 1MO 22.0 H 42.5 L 18.5 C 29.0+7.0 (+31.8%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▼ −21 pts24h · detected 12 Nov 2026, 11:55 UTC

The market price dropped from 39% to 19% as the market approached its deadline, with time decay serving as the likely driver of the move toward resolution.

  • Largest hourly change: 11:00 UTC, 90% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 3 days after the move hour.

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 12 Nov 2026, 12:05 UTC

Earlier

▲ +11 pts · 6 Nov 2026, 22:40 UTCThe price rose from 32% to 43% as odds for Zoran Janković moved down, indicating a repricing across candidate outcomes was the likely driver.The news search didn't complete, so no catalyst is claimed.AI-generated · 7 Nov 2026, 00:05 UTC

Resolution rules

The next Ljubljana mayoral election is scheduled to be held on November 15, 2026, to elect the mayor of the City Municipality of Ljubljana, Slovenia (župan Mestne občine Ljubljana). If no candidate wins a majority of valid votes in the first round, a runoff between the two leading candidates is scheduled for November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ljubljana as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Municipal Election Commission of the City Municipality of Ljubljana (Občinska volilna komisija Mestne občine Ljubljana) and published by the State Election Commission (Državna volilna komisija, DVK) (https://www.dvk-rs.si/).

Market explained

This market measures whether Luka Mesec will win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election to become the next mayor of the City Municipality of Ljubljana, Slovenia.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if Luka Mesec becomes the next mayor of Ljubljana as a result of the 2026 election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors are not considered. The market resolves to No if another candidate becomes mayor as a result of this election. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known by May 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results declared by the Municipal Election Commission of the City Municipality of Ljubljana and published by the State Election Commission if there is ambiguity.

Resolution source

Consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Municipal Election Commission of the City Municipality of Ljubljana published by the State Election Commission as fallback.

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·