Will Jasmin Feratović win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify that the market resolves based on who wins the scheduled 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election, including provisions for a runoff.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify that the market resolves based on who wins the scheduled 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election, including provisions for a runoff. The primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with a definitive fallback to the official results certified by the Municipal Election Commission and published by the State Election Commission (DVK). The rules also include a clear timeout clause resolving to 'Other' if election results remain unresolved by May 31, 2027.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next Ljubljana mayoral election is scheduled to be held on November 15, 2026, to elect the mayor of the City Municipality of Ljubljana, Slovenia (župan Mestne občine Ljubljana). If no candidate wins a majority of valid votes in the first round, a runoff between the two leading candidates is scheduled for November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ljubljana as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Municipal Election Commission of the City Municipality of Ljubljana (Občinska volilna komisija Mestne občine Ljubljana) and published by the State Election Commission (Državna volilna komisija, DVK) (https://www.dvk-rs.si/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Jasmin Feratović wins the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election to become the next mayor of the City Municipality of Ljubljana.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Jasmin Feratović becomes the next mayor of Ljubljana as a result of the election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors do not count. The market resolves to No if another candidate becomes the next mayor. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known by May 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Municipal Election Commission of Ljubljana published by the State Election Commission (DVK) if ambiguity arises.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official results from the Municipal Election Commission of the City Municipality of Ljubljana published by the State Election Commission (DVK)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·