Will Aleš Primc win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define what constitutes winning the mayoral race, explicitly accounting for both a potential first round and a runoff scheduled for November 2026.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly define what constitutes winning the mayoral race, explicitly accounting for both a potential first round and a runoff scheduled for November 2026. The resolution criteria exclude temporary or interim mayors and provide a reasonable long-stop date of May 31, 2027. While credible reporting consensus is mentioned as the primary check, an authoritative official source—the Municipal Election Commission published via the State Election Commission (DVK)—is specified to resolve any potential ambiguity.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next Ljubljana mayoral election is scheduled to be held on November 15, 2026, to elect the mayor of the City Municipality of Ljubljana, Slovenia (župan Mestne občine Ljubljana). If no candidate wins a majority of valid votes in the first round, a runoff between the two leading candidates is scheduled for November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ljubljana as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Municipal Election Commission of the City Municipality of Ljubljana (Občinska volilna komisija Mestne občine Ljubljana) and published by the State Election Commission (Državna volilna komisija, DVK) (https://www.dvk-rs.si/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Aleš Primc wins the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election to become the next mayor of the City Municipality of Ljubljana, Slovenia.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Aleš Primc becomes the next mayor of Ljubljana as a result of the election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors will not be considered. The market resolves No if another candidate wins the election and becomes the next mayor. The market resolves to Other if the result of the election is not known by May 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or, if there is ambiguity, solely by official results declared by the Municipal Election Commission of the City Municipality of Ljubljana and published by the State Election Commission.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with official results declared by the Municipal Election Commission of the City Municipality of Ljubljana and published by the State Election Commission as fallback.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·