Will Apolonija Simon win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify the election event, dates for both the primary round and potential runoff, and the criteria for resolution.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify the election event, dates for both the primary round and potential runoff, and the criteria for resolution. The market resolves to the candidate who becomes the mayor from the election, explicitly excluding interim or temporary appointments. While consensus reporting is mentioned as an initial source, the rules provide a direct and authoritative fallback to the official results declared by the Municipal Election Commission and published by the State Election Commission (DVK). There is also a generous timeout cutoff of May 31, 2027, resolving to Other if the outcome remains undetermined.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next Ljubljana mayoral election is scheduled to be held on November 15, 2026, to elect the mayor of the City Municipality of Ljubljana, Slovenia (župan Mestne občine Ljubljana). If no candidate wins a majority of valid votes in the first round, a runoff between the two leading candidates is scheduled for November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ljubljana as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Municipal Election Commission of the City Municipality of Ljubljana (Občinska volilna komisija Mestne občine Ljubljana) and published by the State Election Commission (Državna volilna komisija, DVK) (https://www.dvk-rs.si/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Apolonija Simon wins the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election to become the next mayor of the City Municipality of Ljubljana, Slovenia.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Apolonija Simon becomes the next mayor of Ljubljana as a result of the 2026 election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors are excluded and will not be considered. The market resolves to No if another candidate becomes the next mayor as a result of this election. The market resolves to Other if the result of the election is not known by May 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by the official results from the Municipal Election Commission of the City Municipality of Ljubljana published by the State Election Commission if ambiguity exists.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with fallback to official results from the Municipal Election Commission of the City Municipality of Ljubljana published by the State Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·