Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly align with the core question, resolving to Yes if the candidate wins and formally accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly align with the core question, resolving to Yes if the candidate wins and formally accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. Resolution relies on a consensus of official Democratic Party sources rather than a single named registry or document, introducing minor discretion in how official consensus is established, though major party nominations are highly public, standardized proceedings. A clarifying clause ensures that any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day does not reverse a Yes resolution, minimizing edge-case confusion.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Market explained
This market measures whether Zohran Mamdani wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic nomination for U.S. president. A notable feature is that any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day will not alter the market's resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Zohran Mamdani wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. The market resolves to No otherwise. If the Democratic nominee is replaced before election day, it will not change the resolution. The outcome is determined by a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·