Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves based on whether Jared Polis wins and accepts the Democratic nomination for president in 2028.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves based on whether Jared Polis wins and accepts the Democratic nomination for president in 2028. The condition is straightforward, and the rules clarify that any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day will not alter the outcome. The resolution source relies on a consensus of official party communications rather than pointing to a single specific website or document, but official party confirmation of a presidential nominee is typically unambiguous.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Market explained
This market measures whether Jared Polis will win and accept the 2028 Democratic nomination for U.S. president. Notably, any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day does not alter the market's resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Jared Polis wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. The market resolves to No if he does not win and accept the nomination. Any replacement of the Democratic nominee prior to election day will not affect or change the resolution. The outcome is decided by a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·