Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves based on whether Phil Murphy wins and formally accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves based on whether Phil Murphy wins and formally accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. Resolution relies on a consensus of official party sources rather than a single pre-designated document or roll call record. The rules explicitly note that any subsequent replacement of the nominee prior to election day will not alter the market resolution once the nomination is accepted.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Market explained
This market measures whether Phil Murphy will win and accept the Democratic Party's presidential nomination for the 2028 U.S. election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Phil Murphy wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. It resolves to No under all other circumstances. A subsequent replacement of the Democratic nominee prior to election day does not alter the resolution. The market is decided by a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Resolution source
Consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·