Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market cleanly defines the winning condition as winning and accepting the nomination at the convention.
Read the full assessment
The market cleanly defines the winning condition as winning and accepting the nomination at the convention. The designated resolution source is a consensus of official Democratic Party sources rather than a single specific URL or document, which grants minor discretion to the market decider, but the outcome of a major party presidential nomination is an unmistakable public event. The rules also clarify that any subsequent replacement of the nominee ahead of the general election does not undo a resolution to Yes once the nomination is formally won and accepted.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▼ −0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Market explained
This market measures whether Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic nomination for U.S. president. A subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day does not alter the resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. The market resolves to No if he does not win and accept the nomination. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution. The outcome is determined by a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Resolution source
Consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·