Will Mitch Landrieu win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly align with the question, requiring the named candidate to both win and formally accept the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly align with the question, requiring the named candidate to both win and formally accept the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. The resolution criteria explicitly state that any subsequent replacement of the nominee prior to election day will not alter the outcome once the nomination is secured. While the source is defined broadly as a consensus of official party sources rather than a single specific document or website, major party presidential nominations are definitive, public historical events with little room for dispute.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Market explained
This market measures whether Mitch Landrieu wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic nomination for U.S. president. A notable condition is that any subsequent replacement of the nominee prior to election day does not alter the resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Mitch Landrieu wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. The market resolves to No if he does not win and accept the nomination. Any replacement of the Democratic nominee before election day will not change the market's resolution. The resolution will be decided by a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·