Ilhan Omar arrested by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide clear and objective criteria defining what constitutes an arrest, including specific requirements such as physical custody paired with booking, criminal warrants, transport to a station, or arraignment.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide clear and objective criteria defining what constitutes an arrest, including specific requirements such as physical custody paired with booking, criminal warrants, transport to a station, or arraignment. Explicit exclusions are outlined for brief detentions, questioning, search, or mere charging without physical custody. The resolution relies primarily on official law enforcement records, though it allows a consensus of credible reporting as a secondary source, introducing a standard degree of discretion if official confirmation is delayed or absent. The timing deadline is unambiguous.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
8%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilhan Omar is arrested between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest occurs when Omar is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true: (i) she is criminally booked or processed; (ii) she is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument; (iii) she is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or (iv) she is transported to a police station or equivalent criminal law enforcement center. The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds. Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether U.S. Representative Ilhan Omar is arrested by December 31, 2026, requiring physical custody alongside specific criminal booking, charging, holding, or transport conditions.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Ilhan Omar is taken into physical custody by law enforcement in any jurisdiction between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, and meets at least one condition: criminal booking or processing; custody under an arrest warrant, indictment, or criminal charge; holding for criminal court proceedings; or transport to a police station or criminal law enforcement center. Warrants or charges without physical custody do not qualify. Brief detention, questioning, searches, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, and medical holds do not qualify on their own. Subsequent release, dismissed charges, or pardons do not affect a Yes resolution. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. The primary resolution source is official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source
Official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, or a consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·