Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump wins and accepts the 2028 Republican nomination for president, and No otherwise.
Read the full assessment
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump wins and accepts the 2028 Republican nomination for president, and No otherwise. The resolution relies on a consensus of official party sources rather than a specifically named document or official, leaving slight latitude, but the outcome of a major party convention is well-defined and widely documented. The rules also explicitly note that if the nominee is replaced prior to election day after winning and accepting, the resolution remains unaffected.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▼ −0.2 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Market explained
This market measures whether Donald Trump will win and accept the Republican Party's nomination for U.S. president in 2028. It specifically notes that replacing the nominee prior to election day will not alter the market's outcome.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. The market resolves to No if he does not win and accept the nomination. Any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day does not alter the resolution. Resolution is determined by a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Resolution source
Consensus of official Republican Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·