brierpoınt
GeopoliticsCloses · in 48 days$3.3M volumePart of: Netanyahu out by...? →

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Trade on Polymarket ↗Referral link

Gotcha risk

Medium

2 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The most significant condition to watch is the clause triggering early resolution: an announcement of resignation or removal immediately resolves the market to Yes, regardless of when the change actually takes effect or if circumstances change before the effective date.

Read the full assessment

The most significant condition to watch is the clause triggering early resolution: an announcement of resignation or removal immediately resolves the market to Yes, regardless of when the change actually takes effect or if circumstances change before the effective date. Resolution relies primarily on official government communications or Netanyahu himself, but the rules also permit falling back on a consensus of credible reporting if necessary.

Resolver
Medium
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
High

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

47%

chance

▼ −1.5 pts · 24h

Yes47¢
No53¢
December 31 · Yes · 1MO 40.5 H 55.0 L 15.0 C 47.0+6.5 (+16.0%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▲ +10 pts24h · detected 10 Nov 2026, 15:40 UTC

The price rose from 42% to 52%, moving in tandem with a related market outcome for March 31, 2027 as political expectations repriced together.

  • Largest hourly change: 20:00 UTC, 25% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 52 days after the move hour.
  • 1 related outcome moved in the same window, 1 in the same direction. Largest: March 31, 2027 (up).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 15:51 UTC

Earlier

▲ +10 pts · 7 Nov 2026, 20:55 UTCThe market price rose from 38% to 49%, but there is insufficient evidence to identify a likely driver for the move.News check pending.AI-generated · 7 Nov 2026, 21:05 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market explained

This market measures whether Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be the Prime Minister of Israel by the end of 2026. A notable aspect is that an official announcement of his resignation or removal triggers an immediate Yes resolution, even if the effective date of departure is in the future.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period between market creation and the specified end date. It also immediately resolves to Yes if an announcement of his resignation or removal is made before the end date, regardless of when it takes effect. The market resolves to No otherwise. Resolution is determined using official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel, or a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution source

Official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel, or a consensus of credible reporting

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·