Netanyahu out by June 30, 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves to Yes if Benjamin Netanyahu leaves office or if an announcement of his resignation or removal is made before June 30, 2027.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves to Yes if Benjamin Netanyahu leaves office or if an announcement of his resignation or removal is made before June 30, 2027. Participants should note the early-resolution clause: a mere announcement triggers an immediate Yes resolution even if the actual departure is scheduled for a future date after the deadline or is later rescinded. Resolution relies on official Israeli government statements or a consensus of credible reporting, which introduces a moderate degree of judgment if conflicting reports emerge regarding whether an announcement constitutes a formal resignation.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
68%
chance▲ +0.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel by June 30, 2027. Notably, an announcement of his resignation or removal before the deadline triggers an immediate resolution, even if the departure takes effect later.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period between market creation and the specified date (ET). An announcement of his resignation or removal before the end date also immediately resolves the market to Yes, regardless of when it takes effect. The market resolves to No if he does not cease to be Prime Minister during this timeframe. Resolution is determined by official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·