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EconomyCloses · in 124 days$46.5K volumePart of: Fed Decision in March? →

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2027 meeting?

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Gotcha risk

Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: This market relies on clear, objective criteria tied directly to official statements published by the Federal Reserve following the scheduled March 2027 FOMC meeting.

Read the full assessment

This market relies on clear, objective criteria tied directly to official statements published by the Federal Reserve following the scheduled March 2027 FOMC meeting. The measurement metric is explicitly defined as the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds range. Resolution relies on authoritative government URLs with virtually no decider discretion. A clear rounding rule handles non-standard rate adjustments, and a defined fallback resolves to 'No change' if no meeting statement is released before the subsequent meeting.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

35%

chance

▼ −2 pts · 24h

Yes35¢
No65¢
No change · Yes · 1MO 42.0 H 61.0 L 31.5 C 35.0−7.0 (−16.7%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▼ −12 pts24h · detected 10 Nov 2026, 15:10 UTC

The market fell from 54% to 42% as related outcomes repriced, with odds for a 25 bps increase moving up alongside this decline as a likely driver.

  • Largest hourly change: 13:00 UTC, 39% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 127 days after the move hour.
  • 1 related outcome moved in the same window, 0 in the same direction. Largest: 25 bps increase (up).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 15:20 UTC

Resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's March 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for March 16-17, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Market explained

This market measures whether the upper bound of the Federal Reserve's target federal funds range remains unchanged following the March 2027 FOMC meeting.

How it resolves

The market resolves to the bracket corresponding to the basis point change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate compared to its level immediately prior to the March 2027 FOMC meeting. The market resolves to "No change" if the upper bound remains at the same level. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the market also resolves to "No change". If the rate changes by an amount not explicitly listed, it is rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and resolves to that bracket. The deciding source is the FOMC statement issued after its scheduled March 16-17, 2027 meeting, or data published on the Federal Reserve's official website.

Resolution source

FOMC statement and official Federal Reserve website

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·