Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2027 meeting?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves according to clear, official data published directly by the Federal Reserve and the FOMC statement following their March 2027 meeting.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves according to clear, official data published directly by the Federal Reserve and the FOMC statement following their March 2027 meeting. The rules clearly define interest rates as the upper bound of the target federal funds range and compare it directly to the pre-meeting level. A specific rounding rule handles non-standard increments, and a fallback provision specifies resolution to no change if no statement is released before the subsequent meeting.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
3%
chance▲ +0.2 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's March 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for March 16-17, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points following the March 2027 FOMC meeting. Rate changes not matching standard brackets are rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the FOMC decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds rate range by 25 basis points compared to its pre-meeting level. Non-standard rate changes are rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points (for example, a 12.5 bps cut counts as 25 bps). The market resolves No if the rate is unchanged, increased, or decreased by a different amount. If no FOMC statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to the No change bracket. The FOMC statement serves as the deciding source.
Resolution source
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement and the official website of the Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·