GeopoliticsCloses Dec 1, 2026 · in 17 days$48.5K volumePart of: Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by...? →

Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by November 30, 2026?

Gotcha risk

Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The rules provide precise, objective criteria for what constitutes a qualifying suspension, defining the exact five airlines, requiring at least three to overlap simultaneously on a single calendar day, and setting a strict threshold of 14 consecutive days of zero scheduled passenger flights.

Read the full assessment

The rules provide precise, objective criteria for what constitutes a qualifying suspension, defining the exact five airlines, requiring at least three to overlap simultaneously on a single calendar day, and setting a strict threshold of 14 consecutive days of zero scheduled passenger flights. Announcements alone do not trigger resolution; actual flight operations determine the outcome. The rules clearly distinguish between scheduled flights and excluded flights (such as repatriation, cargo, charter, or codeshares), and name official flight data from the Israel Airports Authority and airline schedules as primary sources, with media consensus serving only as a secondary check. A minor timing detail to note is that resolution may wait up to 14 days after the end date to confirm whether an active suspension meets the 14-day requirement.

Resolver: Low
Timing: Low
Wording: Low
Exceptions: Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 1 Nov 2026, 02:34 UTC

Current price

chance

▲ +0.5 pts · 24h

Yes9¢

No91¢

Why it moved

Latest move

▼ −11 pts24h · detected 7 Nov 2026, 19:40 UTC

30 days ago▼ −11 · 7 Nov

The price fell from 23% to 13% alongside related markets for December 31, 2026 and January 31, 2027, which also moved down as part of the event's outcomes repricing together.

Largest hourly change: 19:00 UTC, 82% of the net 24-hour change.
Closes 23 days after the move hour.
2 related outcomes moved in the same window, 2 in the same direction. Largest: January 31, 2027 (down), December 31, 2026 (down).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 7 Nov 2026, 19:50 UTC

Resolution rules

Captured Oct 29, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Qualifying Suspensions by at least 3 of the 5 Basket Airlines are in effect simultaneously on at least one calendar day (Israel time) from market creation through the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The Basket Airlines are Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, Lufthansa, Air France, and British Airways. Each counts individually; their affiliates, subsidiaries, and group partners do not count. A Qualifying Suspension is a halt of all Scheduled Passenger Service to and from Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport (LLBG) by a Basket Airline, as actually observed, for a continuous period of at least 14 consecutive calendar days (Israel time), regardless of any announcement by the airline. It qualifies regardless of reason, including security conditions, airspace closures, regulatory instructions, or commercial decisions. Reduced frequencies, or the suspension of some routes while others continue, do not qualify. A Qualifying Suspension is in effect on any day within that period on which the airline operates no Scheduled Passenger Service to or from LLBG. Airline announcements of suspensions, cancellations, or schedule changes will not be considered on their own; if any Scheduled Passenger Service flight to or from LLBG actually operates on a given day, that day will not count toward a Qualifying Suspension, regardless of any announcement. Suspensions need not begin on the same day, but at least 3 must overlap on at least one day within the specified timeframe. A Qualifying Suspension that includes that day may begin before market creation or extend beyond the specified date to complete its 14 days, so this market may remain open for up to 14 days after the specified date; however, only days from market creation through the specified date can be the day of overlap. Scheduled Passenger Service means passenger flights to or from Israel's Ben Gurion Airport (LLBG) operated by or on behalf of a Basket Airline under its own flight number and published schedule. Codeshare flights operated by another carrier, as well as cargo-only, charter, repatriation, evacuation, ferry, and positioning flights, do not count. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official flight information from the Israel Airports Authority and the Basket Airlines (including published schedules and flight status data; airline announcements, such as press releases and travel advisories, may be used only as supporting evidence of whether qualifying flights actually operated); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market explained

This market measures whether at least 3 of 5 specific major airlines simultaneously have a qualifying 14-day flight suspension at Ben Gurion Airport by November 30, 2026.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if Qualifying Suspensions by at least 3 of the 5 Basket Airlines (Delta, United, Lufthansa, Air France, and British Airways) are simultaneously in effect on at least one calendar day (Israel time) through November 30, 2026. A Qualifying Suspension requires a halt of all scheduled passenger service to and from Ben Gurion Airport for at least 14 consecutive calendar days, based on actual operations rather than announcements. Codeshares, cargo, charters, and partner airlines are excluded. The market resolves to No if this threshold is not met. The market may remain open up to 14 days after the specified date to verify if a suspension completes 14 days. Official flight data from the Israel Airports Authority, the airlines, or a consensus of credible reporting decides resolution.

Resolution source

Official flight information from the Israel Airports Authority and the Basket Airlines, or a consensus of credible reporting

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 1 Nov 2026, 02:34 UTC