Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by...?

This event tracks whether major international airlines suspend all scheduled passenger flights to and from Israel's Ben Gurion Airport (LLBG) by specific cutoff dates. Markets measure whether at least three of five specified carriers have overlapping 14-day suspensions.

How the outcomes relate

The event is structured as a ladder of date milestones. Because each market covers the timeframe from creation through its specified date, an earlier qualifying overlap will cause all subsequent date markets to resolve Yes as well. Thus, more than one market can resolve Yes.

How it resolves

A market resolves to Yes if Qualifying Suspensions by at least 3 of the 5 Basket Airlines (Delta, United, Lufthansa, Air France, British Airways) are simultaneously in effect on at least one calendar day (Israel time) between market creation and the specified cutoff date. Otherwise, it resolves to No. A Qualifying Suspension is an observed complete halt of all Scheduled Passenger Service to and from Ben Gurion Airport for at least 14 consecutive calendar days. Reduced frequencies, codeshares, cargo, or charter flights do not qualify. A market may remain open up to 14 days after its cutoff date to verify if a suspension completes its 14-day requirement.

Key dates

• November 30, 2026 cutoff: Nov 30, 2026 — Specified cutoff date for the November 2026 market
• December 31, 2026 cutoff: Dec 31, 2026 — Specified cutoff date for the December 2026 market
• January 31, 2027 cutoff: Jan 31, 2027 — Specified cutoff date for the January 2027 market

Resolution source

Official flight information from the Israel Airports Authority and the Basket Airlines, or a consensus of credible reporting.

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 1 Nov 2026, 00:32 UTC