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GeopoliticsCloses · in 79 days$15K volumePart of: Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by...? →

Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by January 31, 2027?

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Gotcha risk

Medium

2 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The rules provide precise definitions for qualifying suspensions, explicitly naming the five airlines, requiring at least three to overlap for a 14-day continuous halt, and defining scheduled passenger service versus exempt flights.

Read the full assessment

The rules provide precise definitions for qualifying suspensions, explicitly naming the five airlines, requiring at least three to overlap for a 14-day continuous halt, and defining scheduled passenger service versus exempt flights. However, resolution may be delayed by up to 14 days after the January 31, 2027 deadline to verify if a suspension period meets the consecutive 14-day duration requirement. Additionally, while the Israel Airports Authority and airline data serve as primary sources, the fallback to a consensus of credible reporting introduces decider discretion regarding whether flights were actually operated.

Resolver
Medium
Timing
Medium
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Last captured price

27%

chance

▲ +1 pts · 24h

Yes27¢
No74¢

January 31, 2027 · Yes · 1MO 55.5 H 73.5 L 25.0 C 26.5−29.0 (−52.3%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▲ +11 pts24h · detected 9 Nov 2026, 05:10 UTC

The market rose from 26% to 36% alongside a related outcome for December 31, 2026, which also moved upward, indicating a broader repricing across related event dates as the likely driver.

  • Largest hourly change: 22:00 UTC, 77% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 84 days after the move hour.
  • 1 related outcome moved in the same window, 1 in the same direction. Largest: December 31, 2026 (up).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 9 Nov 2026, 05:20 UTC

Earlier

▼ −22 pts · 7 Nov 2026, 19:40 UTCThe price fell from 54% to 32% as related outcomes for November 30, 2026 and December 31, 2026 also moved lower, reflecting a broader repricing across the event's markets.News check pending.AI-generated · 7 Nov 2026, 22:50 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Qualifying Suspensions by at least 3 of the 5 Basket Airlines are in effect simultaneously on at least one calendar day (Israel time) from market creation through the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The Basket Airlines are Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, Lufthansa, Air France, and British Airways. Each counts individually; their affiliates, subsidiaries, and group partners do not count. A Qualifying Suspension is a halt of all Scheduled Passenger Service to and from Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport (LLBG) by a Basket Airline, as actually observed, for a continuous period of at least 14 consecutive calendar days (Israel time), regardless of any announcement by the airline. It qualifies regardless of reason, including security conditions, airspace closures, regulatory instructions, or commercial decisions. Reduced frequencies, or the suspension of some routes while others continue, do not qualify. A Qualifying Suspension is in effect on any day within that period on which the airline operates no Scheduled Passenger Service to or from LLBG. Airline announcements of suspensions, cancellations, or schedule changes will not be considered on their own; if any Scheduled Passenger Service flight to or from LLBG actually operates on a given day, that day will not count toward a Qualifying Suspension, regardless of any announcement. Suspensions need not begin on the same day, but at least 3 must overlap on at least one day within the specified timeframe. A Qualifying Suspension that includes that day may begin before market creation or extend beyond the specified date to complete its 14 days, so this market may remain open for up to 14 days after the specified date; however, only days from market creation through the specified date can be the day of overlap. Scheduled Passenger Service means passenger flights to or from Israel's Ben Gurion Airport (LLBG) operated by or on behalf of a Basket Airline under its own flight number and published schedule. Codeshare flights operated by another carrier, as well as cargo-only, charter, repatriation, evacuation, ferry, and positioning flights, do not count. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official flight information from the Israel Airports Authority and the Basket Airlines (including published schedules and flight status data; airline announcements, such as press releases and travel advisories, may be used only as supporting evidence of whether qualifying flights actually operated); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market explained

This market measures whether at least 3 of 5 specific major airlines simultaneously suspend all scheduled passenger flights to and from Ben Gurion Airport for at least 14 consecutive days by January 31, 2027.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if Qualifying Suspensions by at least 3 of the 5 Basket Airlines (Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, Lufthansa, Air France, and British Airways) overlap on at least one calendar day (Israel time) between market creation and January 31, 2027. A Qualifying Suspension means an airline operates zero scheduled passenger flights to or from Ben Gurion Airport (LLBG) for at least 14 consecutive calendar days, based on actual operations rather than announcements. Codeshare, cargo, charter, repatriation, evacuation, ferry, and positioning flights, as well as airline affiliates or subsidiaries, do not count. Reduced frequencies do not qualify. The market resolves to No if this condition is not met. The primary resolution sources are official flight information from the Israel Airports Authority and the Basket Airlines, supplemented by credible reporting consensus. The market may remain open up to 14 days after January 31, 2027, to verify 14-day continuity.

Resolution source

Official flight information from the Israel Airports Authority and the Basket Airlines (including published schedules and flight status data), or a consensus of credible reporting.

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·