Will Trump speak to Mark Carney by November 30?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on a consensus of credible media reporting rather than an official log or single designated registry, leaving room for interpretation regarding what qualifies as definitive evidence.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible media reporting rather than an official log or single designated registry, leaving room for interpretation regarding what qualifies as definitive evidence. While verbal communication in person, by phone, or by video is explicitly required, determining whether brief or informal exchanges count may invite dispute. Additionally, statements from the individuals or their representatives are subject to strict evidentiary criteria, including a three-day window without contradictions from the other party or media. A strict cutoff rule forces a negative resolution if the exact timing cannot be confirmed by three days after the deadline, even if the interaction is proven later.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
>99%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual speaks with Donald Trump between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Speaking is defined as any verbal interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be credible media reporting. However, in the absence of definitive or in the case of contradictory media reporting, statements by either of the specified individuals or their official representatives will also be considered. Statements by the specified individuals or their official representatives will only be considered conclusive if the claims explicitly, or in context unambiguously, indicate that a qualifying talk occurred within the specified timeframe and took place via verbal communication, and provided that such claims are not contradicted by the other specified individual, their representatives, or credible media reporting by the end of the third calendar date (ET) following the statement in question. This market will resolve at the earlier of i) a qualifying verbal interaction being confirmed under the above rules or ii) 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe. If the date and time of a qualifying talk cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.
Market explained
This market measures whether Donald Trump and Mark Carney have a qualifying verbal interaction by November 30, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump and Mark Carney speak verbally with each other, either in person or via phone or video call, between market creation and November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to No if no qualifying verbal interaction occurs within the timeframe, or if the date and time of a qualifying talk cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following November 30, 2026. Credible media reporting decides the outcome. If media reporting is absent or contradictory, uncontradicted statements from either individual or their official representatives are considered. The market resolves at the earlier of a confirmed talk or 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following the deadline.
Resolution source
Credible media reporting, or statements by either specified individual or their official representatives.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·