Democratic 2028 presidential odds dip to 50% by March 31?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market relies on an objective, named aggregator source with clearly defined data points and mathematical criteria (four consecutive hourly prints at or below 50.0%).
Read the full assessment
This market relies on an objective, named aggregator source with clearly defined data points and mathematical criteria (four consecutive hourly prints at or below 50.0%). However, there is a mismatch between the title's implied deadline of March 31 and the rule's specific cutoff of April 1, 2027, at 12:00 AM ET (which functionally represents the end of March 31, but the year 2027 should be noted relative to the 2028 election cycle). Participants must also track exceptional clauses regarding how missing data ('NO_PRINT') is handled without resetting runs, a 48-hour buffer window for technical corrections, and specific resolution terms if the underlying market decides early or permanently stops publishing.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Medium
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
9%
chanceWhy it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Democratic Party's hourly odds value in the "2028 Presidential Winner by Party" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com is equal to or below 50% for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and April 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph on that option's detail page. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which the Democratic Party's hourly odds value is above 50% ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values. Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for the Democratic Party (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for the Democratic Party in the "2028 Presidential Winner by Party" listing before April 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing the Democratic Party from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. If no hourly odds values have been published for the Democratic Party between market creation and April 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed end date, this market will resolve to "Yes" if the Democratic Party is not the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to "No". If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for the Democratic Party in the "2028 Presidential Winner by Party" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/president-2028-party.html and on the Democratic Party's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party's odds to win the 2028 presidential election fall to or below 50% on PredictionMarketOdds.com. What makes it unusual is that it requires 4 consecutive hourly odds values at or below the threshold rather than a single touchpoint.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party's hourly odds value in the "2028 Presidential Winner by Party" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com is equal to or below 50% for 4 consecutive hourly odds values between market creation and April 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET. It also resolves to Yes if the underlying market is officially decided before the end date and the Democratic Party is not the winner. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met, or if no hourly odds values are published for the Democratic Party in the specified window. Any hour with odds above 50% resets the consecutive count, while missing values ("NO_PRINT") are disregarded and do not count toward or break a streak. PredictionMarketOdds.com decides the market based on its published values, subject to a 48-hour window for technical error corrections.
Resolution source
PredictionMarketOdds.com
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·