Democratic 2028 presidential odds hit 70% by March 31?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market relies on a specific URL and defined data feed from PredictionMarketOdds.com, leaving little decider discretion.
Read the full assessment
This market relies on a specific URL and defined data feed from PredictionMarketOdds.com, leaving little decider discretion. However, there are notable details to track. The question title asks about hitting 70% by March 31 without specifying a year, whereas the rules set the cutoff date as April 1, 2027, at 12:00 AM ET. Additionally, merely touching 70% momentarily does not trigger resolution; the threshold must be met or exceeded across four consecutive published hourly values. Any missing data prints are skipped, but an intermediate dip resets the count. There is also a 48-hour pause window permitted if data contains clear technical errors, after which uncorrected original prints become binding.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
68%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Democratic Party's hourly odds value in the "2028 Presidential Winner by Party" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com meets or exceeds the listed threshold (for a "↑" market) or is equal to or below the listed threshold (for a "↓" market) for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and April 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph on that option's detail page. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which the Democratic Party's hourly odds value is below the listed threshold (for a "↑" market) or above the listed threshold (for a "↓" market) ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values. Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for the Democratic Party (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for the Democratic Party in the "2028 Presidential Winner by Party" listing before April 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing the Democratic Party from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. If no hourly odds values have been published for the Democratic Party between market creation and April 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed end date, a "↑" market will resolve to "Yes" if the Democratic Party is the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to "No", and a "↓" market will resolve to "Yes" if the Democratic Party is not the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to "No". If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for the Democratic Party in the "2028 Presidential Winner by Party" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/president-2028-party.html and on the Democratic Party's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party's odds of winning the 2028 presidential election reach or exceed 70% on PredictionMarketOdds.com for four consecutive hourly prints before April 1, 2027.
How it resolves
This market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party's hourly odds value in the "2028 Presidential Winner by Party" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com meets or exceeds 70% for 4 consecutive hourly values published between market creation and April 1, 2027, at 12:00 AM ET. It also resolves to Yes if the underlying market is officially decided in favor of the Democratic Party before the end date. Otherwise, the market resolves to No, including if no hourly values are published. Hours marked as NO_PRINT are disregarded and do not break a streak. An hour falling below the threshold ends a consecutive run. PredictionMarketOdds.com decides resolution. If data permanently ceases, resolution uses data up to that point. Up to 48 hours is allowed to correct technical errors.
Resolution source
PredictionMarketOdds.com
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·