Democratic 2028 presidential odds dip to 60% by March 31?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify a single named data source, the precise table column, and the exact threshold criteria required for resolution.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify a single named data source, the precise table column, and the exact threshold criteria required for resolution. However, there are two key mechanical details to monitor: the resolution requires four consecutive hourly prints meeting the condition rather than a brief momentary touch, and the actual cutoff date stated in the body of the rules is April 1, 2027, which differs significantly from the question's implication of March 31 without an explicit year.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Medium
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
32%
chance▼ −0.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Democratic Party's hourly odds value in the "2028 Presidential Winner by Party" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com meets or exceeds the listed threshold (for a "↑" market) or is equal to or below the listed threshold (for a "↓" market) for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and April 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph on that option's detail page. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which the Democratic Party's hourly odds value is below the listed threshold (for a "↑" market) or above the listed threshold (for a "↓" market) ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values. Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for the Democratic Party (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for the Democratic Party in the "2028 Presidential Winner by Party" listing before April 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing the Democratic Party from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. If no hourly odds values have been published for the Democratic Party between market creation and April 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed end date, a "↑" market will resolve to "Yes" if the Democratic Party is the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to "No", and a "↓" market will resolve to "Yes" if the Democratic Party is not the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to "No". If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for the Democratic Party in the "2028 Presidential Winner by Party" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/president-2028-party.html and on the Democratic Party's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party's tracked odds for winning the 2028 presidential election fall to or below the specified threshold for four consecutive hours before April 1, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party's hourly odds value in the specified listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com is equal to or below the listed threshold for 4 consecutive hourly odds values between market creation and April 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. The market also resolves to No if no hourly odds values are published in the evaluation window. Hours showing NO_PRINT are disregarded and do not count toward or break a streak. Values published above the threshold end any active run. Resolution is decided by PredictionMarketOdds.com hourly data.
Resolution source
PredictionMarketOdds.com
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·