2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves to Yes if Pete Hegseth leaves or is announced to leave the administration before the end of 2026.
This market resolves to Yes if Pete Hegseth leaves or is announced to leave the administration before the end of 2026. A notable rule mechanic to watch is the early resolution trigger: an announcement of resignation or removal immediately resolves the market to Yes, even if the actual departure date is scheduled for after the cutoff. Additionally, resolution relies on official administration information or a consensus of credible reporting (noted with a typo as 'credible reopening'), which grants discretion to the market decider when assessing news reports if official statements are delayed or absent.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
17%
chance▲ +1 pts · 24h
The market fell from 42% to 22%, but there is insufficient evidence to identify a likely driver for the move.
News check pending.
A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.
AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 20:35 UTC
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
This market tracks whether Pete Hegseth ceases to be a member of the Trump administration or has his departure announced before 2027. It immediately resolves to Yes upon an announced resignation or removal regardless of its effective date.
The market resolves to Yes if it is announced that Pete Hegseth will leave the Trump administration, or if he otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of his resignation or removal before the market end date immediately triggers a Yes resolution, regardless of when the departure takes effect. The Trump administration encompasses individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to federal roles publicly announced via official government channels. The market resolves to No otherwise. Resolution is determined primarily by official information from the Trump administration, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Official information from the Trump administration, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·