Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves to Yes as soon as an announcement is made that Marco Rubio will leave or resign, even if the actual departure date falls well after the December 31, 2026 cutoff.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves to Yes as soon as an announcement is made that Marco Rubio will leave or resign, even if the actual departure date falls well after the December 31, 2026 cutoff. The rules also contain an apparent typo ('credible reopening' instead of 'credible reporting') when defining backup sources alongside official Trump administration announcements. Aside from the early trigger on mere announcement and the minor source typo, the criteria for what constitutes membership in the administration are straightforward.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
7%
chance▼ −1.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Marco Rubio will depart or be announced to depart from the Trump administration prior to the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if it is announced that Marco Rubio will leave the Trump administration, or if he otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of his resignation or removal before the market end date immediately triggers a Yes resolution, regardless of when it formally takes effect. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met. The primary deciding source is official information from the Trump administration, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source
Official information from the Trump administration, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·