Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves to Yes immediately upon an announcement of Scott Bessent's departure or removal, even if the actual departure date takes effect after the deadline.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves to Yes immediately upon an announcement of Scott Bessent's departure or removal, even if the actual departure date takes effect after the deadline. This early resolution trigger based strictly on an announcement is a key mechanic to track. The rules define the scope of administration roles clearly, and the deadline is precise. While official government communications serve as the primary decider, the fallback to a consensus of credible reporting introduces decider judgement if official statements are delayed or absent.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
5%
chance▼ −0.95 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Scott Bessent will leave the Trump administration or have his departure announced before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if an announcement is made that Scott Bessent will leave the Trump administration, or if he ceases to be a member of the administration by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of resignation or removal made before the deadline triggers an immediate Yes resolution, regardless of the effective date. The market resolves to No if he does not leave or have his departure announced by the deadline. The Trump administration includes formally appointed Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, and White House staff announced via official government channels. The primary resolution source is official information from the Trump administration, with a consensus of credible reporting serving as an alternative.
Resolution source
Official information from the Trump administration, or a consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·